Future Manpower Requirement Where We Are in 2030?
This is a non-technical report that documents the development of Manpower Projection and Assessment Tool (MPAST) and its application to estimate the future demand and supply of labour in Malaysia. It is one of the outputs produced by the Centre for Future Labour Market Studies (EU-ERA) under its Monitoring and Evaluation research-focused area. The aim of the research-focused is to support medium-term human capital planning by developing economic-labour market impact assessment and forecasting up to the year 2030.
Our assessment indicates that there is a need for the country to equip with the demand and supply projection as one of the important inputs for the Labour Market Information (LMI). Education and skill mismatches among graduates, labour shortages for low- and semiskilled, foreign worker dependencies and low women participation rates are among the persistent structural issues resulting from the demand-supply gaps. Thus, the projection serves as initial insight for the policymakers to take the subsequent steps in making necessary labour market interventions to address the “policy blind spot” in the whole economic segment.
Results show a stabilisation of labour market starting 2024 and onwards with the structural gaps remaining “stick” and “nest” in the economy. Unemployment rates are expected to back into the normal period (pre-pandemic period in 2019) in 2024 with a projected unemployment rate of around 3.4%. The gap between supply and demand for semi-skilled is narrowing and the expected to arrive at the equilibrium in 2029-2030. Nevertheless, the gap between demand and supply for high-skilled and low-skilled is projected to widen and the labour surplus for these two skill categories is likely to persist. If this is the case, then efforts to address the issues of graduate mismatch, foreign worker dependency, labour shortage and low wage will not give desired outcomes.
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